Pokémon GO Success Will Help AR Market Reach $30 Billion By 2020

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With Pokémon GO continuing to dominate app charts worldwide, TrendForce has estimated that its popularity will help the global AR software market reach $30 billion in scale by 2020.

“The popularity of the Pokémon brand and its character IP, rather than the AR technology, is mainly responsible for the success of this game,” shares TrendForce wearable device analyst Jason Tsai.

“Other AR games that were released earlier did not resonate with consumers because they do not have the long and famous brand history that Pokémon has. Over a 20-year period, this title has built up a franchise that spans across games, films, anime, toys and other industries. In sum, the brand’s widespread recognition and its tens of millions of fans are the driving force behind this craze over Pokémon GO.”

He also touched on plans to generate additional revenues from the game’s popularity, which will help to reignite interest in the popular brand.

Tsai continued, “The revenue from the game will be divided according to the typical arrangement. Most of it will go to download platforms (i.e. Google Play and Apple’s App Store) and Niantic, the developer and distributor of the game. Though Nintendo controls part of the Pokémon franchise and will also receive a share of the revenue, making profit from the game is not company’s primary, long-term goal. The real aim is to generate continuing publicity with the Pokémon brand using the AR technology and attract potential customers to other, even more valuable areas of the franchise such as theme parks.”

Now that Pokémon GO has proved that mobile-based AR technology can become popular worldwide, he hopes that the industry will continue to explore further ways to innovate and differentiate.

Tsai closed, “Many software developers will try to replicate the game’s success and explore other possible applications for the AR technology. If the game Angry Bird could be seen as the takeoff point in the growth trajectory of mobile games, then Pokémon GO could also be regarded as the catalyst for the rapid expansion of AR applications on the mobile platform. Some app developers will take the lessons from the Pokémon GO and create knockoff games.

“However, these titles may end up being not as successful due to the lack recognizable character IP or the poor use of the IP in game design. Nonetheless, the proliferation of mobile-based AR games will increase consumers’ contact with the technology. People will eventually become more familiar with using AR apps for different activities. Besides spurring the creation of new AR game apps, Pokémon GO will help expand AR’s role in consumers’ everyday lives.”

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After starting out with a Yellow Game Boy and a copy of Donkey Kong Land, Alex once hid in his room to play The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time one Christmas. Now he shares his thoughts on Nintendo Insider, keeping track of everything to do with Nintendo.

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